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Let’s simply begin this off by saying that Donald Trump doesn’t have a whole lot of deep longstanding beliefs on subjects that don’t straight concern him. And he’s one of the crucial transactional politicians I’ve ever seen, in a world in fact the place politicians are exceptionally transactional. We assume many issues on Trump based mostly on the previous, however a few issues can change and he can flip in one other path. If he assume he can get one thing from you, he can change his “beliefs” 100% and even 200% and go in one other path.
After which we’ve received Elon Musk, who is outwardly not all that a lot totally different. Effectively, that is clearly the place to begin. Whereas Donald Trump has talked very critically and combatively about China for a number of years, Elon Musk has been very optimistic about China and has now based mostly half of Tesla’s international manufacturing capability there. Tesla was the primary automaker of any variety given permission to construct its personal manufacturing unit there with no three way partnership with a Chinese language firm. Clearly, he has been granted particular consideration and favors in China.
So, what occurs now if Musk, who’s a key a part of Trump’s workforce now, is standing by Trump whereas he’s trashing China? What occurs if Trump does go ahead with larger tariffs on Chinese language-produced merchandise? Is Tesla’s place in China threatened if Trump doesn’t play good on China? Frankly, with the flick of a swap or one cellphone name, Tesla’s manufacturing and gross sales in China may very well be demolished. Maybe President Xi Jinping wouldn’t go that route. Or maybe he would.
However let’s assume one thing else. Let’s assume Musk will get Trump to melt his rhetoric and strategy on China. Let’s say Musk in some way transfers who deferential and respectful he’s to Xi Jinping on to Trump and Trump begins treating Xi Jinping extra how he treats Vladimir Putin. Then what? How does China’s relationship with the US change? (And let’s not low cost the truth that Trump was lately having his marketing campaign fundraiser Bibles made in China.)
This text was triggered by information I noticed this morning that Xi Jinping has known as to congratulate Trump. “Xi urges China, U.S. to handle variations correctly,” Reuters studies. “Xi requires mutual respect, strengthened dialogue.” It appears that evidently Xi want to have a greater relationship with the US once more, and, frankly, are any of Trump’s fanatical cult followers going to care if Trump turns 180 levels on China? Do any of them care if he’s pro-tariff or anti-tariff with China? Trump campaigned partly on placing massive tariffs on Chinese language items, and stubbornly mentioned this wouldn’t elevate costs for People, however some segments of the inventory market are already reacting negatively to that, and we all know Trump doesn’t need to be unpopular, particularly on Wall Avenue. Additionally, Reuters notes, “China faces main development dangers from threatened tariffs of 60%.” Xi Jinping could also be additional eager to “discover a answer” with Trump and play no matter silly flattery recreation Trump desires to keep away from a rising commerce conflict. May Musk persuade Trump to go this route? What anti-China persons are on Trump’s workforce who’ve an even bigger voice with him?
In fact, as somebody I talked to in the present day who was enthusiastic about these identical issues famous, Trump desires to be the focus and get the reward for the whole lot. He and Musk aligned to attain a standard purpose, however will Trump get bored with him, bored of him (he has reportedly known as Musk boring and peculiar in non-public), and aggravated by him taking his highlight and interfering together with his plans for China? Will Musk quickly discover what numerous others have discovered, that the whole lot Trump touches dies and rots? Or is that this an alliance and bromance that can rising in the course of the subsequent 4 years?
Assuming Trump modifications course on China, what may that imply extra broadly? Will tariffs on EVs and photo voltaic panels come down? Will Chinese language EVs lastly come to America and destroy complacent and distracted American automakers? Musk has predicted that will occur and positively wouldn’t care; he could even invite it. Trump presumably hasn’t gotten the reward and assist from GM and Ford that he’d like, and positively not from the United Auto Staff union, an arch nemesis of Elon Musk. Maybe he’d change course and fortunately let Chinese language automakers are available and threaten the US auto trade.
All of these EV battery crops, photo voltaic panel factories, EV battery mineral mines and refineries that have been anticipated to assist rebuild working class, blue collar management within the US — are they going to be lifeless within the water if Trump lets the Chinese language in with 0% tariffs?
I don’t assume anybody actually is aware of the place all of this goes. A whole lot of it may merely come down to private dynamics between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. They appear rosy for the time being. However they haven’t at all times been.
In 2022, Musk mentioned that it was “time for Trump to hold up his hat & sail into the sundown.” And Trump responded on Reality Social:
“When Elon Musk got here to the White Home asking me for assistance on all of his many backed initiatives, whether or not it’s electrical vehicles that don’t drive lengthy sufficient, driverless vehicles that crash, or rocketships to nowhere, with out which subsidies he’d be nugatory, and telling me how he was a giant Trump fan and Republican, I may have mentioned, ‘drop to your knees and beg,’ and he would have accomplished it.”
Who gained that debate?
“Now Elon ought to give attention to getting himself out of the Twitter mess as a result of he may owe $44 billion for one thing that’s maybe nugatory,” Trump added. Effectively, you must say Trump was extra proper than improper on that as effectively — from a monetary perspective. Nevertheless, from a political perspective, Twitter/X has in all probability proved fairly helpful to Musk. Let’s see the place issues go from right here, although.
Coming again to the China–US subject, China Each day, a state-run newspaper, added: “new starting in China-US relations, if the possibility that has been provided will not be wasted.”
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