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The October auto market noticed plugin EVs take 95.6% share in Norway, up from 91.3% yr on yr. BEVs took 94.0% share, with PHEVs including one other 1.5% to mixed plugins. Total auto quantity was 11,552 items, a rise of 29.4% YoY. The most effective promoting BEV was the Skoda Enyaq.
October’s gross sales noticed mixed EVs take 95.6% share in Norway, with 94.0% full battery electrics (BEVs), and 1.5% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These evaluate with YoY figures of 91.3% mixed, with 84.2% BEV and seven.1% PHEV.
The tax changes that began in January have been efficient in additional incentivizing BEVs and disincentivizing all different powertrains. The 2024 yr so far share for BEVs now stands at 88.8%, up from 83.5% YoY.
That 88.8% share is even after the detrimental of the “filter out previous inventory” blip for plugless automobiles which occurred in Might and June (as a result of looming new requirements for automobile security tools). The complete yr complete will find yourself proper round 90%.
Having the auto market (now basically all BEVs) again to pretty first rate month-to-month quantity helps with rushing progress within the fleet transition, which I’ll cowl in a later report.
Diesels are clearly at a really low degree (2.2%) however those who stay promoting (about which I can discover no particular mannequin information, please remark if you already know extra) are proving onerous to thoroughly displace, with that market share undiminished YoY.
I’d guess the purchasers are primarily people dwelling above the arctic circle and different very distant areas, who have to cowl lengthy journeys, maybe with common towing or working duties, together with within the depth of winter. For these people, diesels (and diesel refilling stations) are clearly a tried and examined know-how, for which dependable options at a comparable value will not be but interesting. On this state of affairs PHEV diesels (or EREVs) would clearly be preferable to diesel-only gross sales, however only a few PHEVs diesel fashions exist.
Given these sorts of edge-cases, maybe the 100% BEV aspirational objective for 2025 was a bit too idealistic, and a objective of 95% BEV would have been extra achievable. There’s all the time a flat prime of know-how adoption curves, and never essentially as a result of shopper stubbornness, however as an alternative typically due to difficult (or doubtlessly safety-related) edge instances.
Sooner or later within the coming years battery know-how might be prepared (and 100% reliable) to serve even these excessive use instances, however we will not be there fairly but. Sodium-ion chemistry has good prospects (as soon as additional matured) for working reliably within the excessive chilly (-40 levels and maybe decrease) which might repeatedly happen north of the arctic circle. 
Greatest Promoting Fashions
After Tesla’s routine finish of quarter push in September, October noticed the model take a relative break, and the Skoda Enyaq was in a position to step into the highest spot for BEV gross sales, with 758 items.
The Toyota BZ4X took second spot, with 699 items. In third was the Tesla Mannequin 3, with 695 items (sure, that is rest-break quantity for Tesla)!
The notable strikes in October included the quick development of the brand new Ford Explorer, now as much as seventh spot (and 407 items), having solely simply arrived in August. That is spectacular, let’s see how a lot additional it could actually climb.
Simply behind in eighth, the Volkswagen ID.7 additionally hit file volumes, with 406 items (3.5x its earlier finest quantity). This comes because the ID.7 additionally took second rank in neighbouring Sweden. What’s it in regards to the ID.7 (presumably within the touring model) which is making it so fashionable within the Nordics?
The brand new Q6 e-tron additionally had its finest month but, with 315 items, climbing to eleventh spot. Its cousin the Porsche Macan additionally grew strongly in simply its second month on sale, with 213 items and sixteenth spot.
A few vital BEV fashions noticed their debut in October. The Citroen e-C3 noticed a single preliminary unit to interrupt the ice, hopefully with many extra to comply with.
The brand new Ford Capri additionally noticed its first gross sales in October, with 16 items registered. Like its sibling the Ford Explorer, the Capri is constructed on VW Group’s MEB platform. The Capri is about 170 mm longer (4643 mm) than the Explorer, although each are the identical peak. The place the Explorer has a extra normal “boxy” SUV form, the Capri has a coupe-back form (suppose VW ID.4 vs ID.5).
Priced from 477,800 NOK (€40,200), the entry Capri is about 10% costlier than the entry Explorer, and has a bit extra energy and efficiency, and barely extra vary. Let’s see which one is most popular in Norway.
The MG Cyberster additionally noticed its Norwegian debut in October, with 6 preliminary items. Let’s see what quantity degree it could actually obtain. Given the native local weather, one has to think about that the Cyberster’s gross sales could also be distinctly seasonal.
Now let’s examine the 3-month perspective:
Tesla stays dominant, with the Mannequin Y and Mannequin 3 uppermost within the rankings. Though the Mannequin Y is sort of all the time within the lead, the Mannequin 3 has spent many of the previous 18 months outdoors the highest 10, so grabbing second place is a return in the direction of the nice previous days of 2019-2021, when it principally led the pack. That is because of a really sturdy September, and a good October.
Having been missing quantity within the prior interval, the Skoda Enyaq has not too long ago been sturdy, and has now grabbed third spot (from ninth beforehand).
Notice the persevering with climb of the nonetheless comparatively new Audi Q6 e-tron (now as much as thirteenth spot, having been seventeenth in final month’s trailing-3). This can be a nice end result for a premium-priced automobile. We will confidently predict that its cousin the Porsche Macan will break into the highest 20 subsequent month.
Additionally doing nicely is the brand new Ford Explorer, already as much as seventeenth after solely two months of economic quantity. In final month’s report I guessed we might have to attend until November for it to succeed in the highest 20, however it has already damaged in. If the Explorer can proceed on this trajectory, it ought to get very near the highest 10 by the tip of the yr, an excellent end result for Ford in Europe’s most mature and various BEV market.
The Xpeng G6 has not fairly made it this time round (twenty first spot), however ought to enter subsequent month.
Outlook
Norway’s broader economic system has improved over current months, with the 2024 Q2 information exhibiting YoY GDP up by 4.2% (newest figures accessible) because of authorities spending. Count on Q3 outcomes to be extra modest, however doubtless nonetheless optimistic, a turnaround from Q1’s detrimental 0.9%.
Inflation crept again as much as 3% in September (newest information) from 2.6% in August. Rates of interest remained excessive at 4.5%, unchanged in virtually a yr. Manufacturing PMI remains to be average, at 52.4 factors in October, from 51.8 factors in September.
With auto gross sales now enhancing in quantity in comparison with a yr in the past, there’s a good probability for the fleet transition to return nearer to the glory days of 2022, when the BEVs may typically take an extra 1.5% fleet share every quarter.
As mentioned earlier, while a worthwhile stretch goal, really anticipating 100% of latest autos to be BEVs in 2025 now appears unrealistic, however round 95% or above appears attainable. 2024 ought to find yourself at round 90% BEV share, up from 82.4% for full yr 2023, a good upward trajectory contemplating we are actually on the prime of the adoption curve.
For these final remaining 1% or 2% of diesel gross sales to be transformed over to BEV will take a number of extra battery developments to be commercialised, that are most likely nonetheless 2 or 3 years out. However 95+% share for BEV is definitely achievable, and needs to be thought of a really respectable real-world end result for 2025.
What do you consider the present form of Norway’s auto market? What sorts of segments and fashions would you continue to wish to see BEVs enter into, which aren’t at the moment accommodated? What’s your tackle the remaining edge instances in Norway that should be met? Please be part of within the dialogue beneath and share your perspective.
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