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Colombia’s EV market is booming.
As I mentioned a pair months in the past, we’re not solely seeing vital YoY (yr over yr) progress (as we’re in a number of different markets, together with Costa Rica, Uruguay, Mexico, and Brazil), however we’re additionally taking a look at “bursts” of demand that result in vital MoM (month over month) will increase. The newest of those we simply witnessed in October, when almost 1,200 EVs had been offered, over a thousand of them being BEVs.
Having surpassed the psychological barrier of 1,000 BEVs (one thing famous in a number of automotive magazines across the nation), and with a complete market nicely under 20,000 models a month (18,521 in October), EVs have mainly gotten into the Nice Leagues.
Now, so far as market composition goes, Colombia is bucking the worldwide development. The arrival of reasonably priced BEVs and the comparative steep worth of PHEVs has led to the latter falling in relative in addition to absolute phrases: whereas in October BEV gross sales grew a powerful 270% YoY, PHEVs fell by 8%; because of this, BEVs made up 90% of the plug-in market final month.
This progress signifies that solely 4 months after surpassing 5% market share, we discover ourselves over 6%! Particularly, 6.4% (5.8% BEV, 0.6% PHEV).
Now, as you possibly can see from earlier years, November and December are typically constructive months for brand spanking new power autos, and extra in order a veritable tsunami of them is arriving in Bogota’s 2024 Corridor of the Car. Which means closing the yr at 8% and even 10% market share is now a chance!
Market Composition
New and aggressive BEVs and PHEVs are arriving in droves, however the Corridor of the Car opened in November, so the influence of those will solely be recognized in a month. For now, the brand new wave of progress appears to have been unlocked by the arrival of a few ships filled with BYD Seagull and BYD Yuan Up, the 2 fashions that by far lead this market:
The extra reasonably priced Seagull leads the chart, adopted intently by the Yuan Up, and in a not-so-distant third place we’ve got the Kia EV5, a Chinese language-made SUV with a 64 kWh or 88 kWh battery relying on the model. The EV5 has dethroned the Volvo EX30 because of its a lot greater worth for cash: for a mere $1,000 extra ($43,500 vs $44,600), you get a long-range SUV with an enormous battery and rather more house. Or you possibly can go for the short-range EV5 ($40,000), save over $3,000, and nonetheless get a a lot bigger battery (the EX30 has a 51 kWh battery, vs a 64 kWh one for the EV5).
Additional down the record, I need to deal with two fashions. First: the veteran rebranded Stark E-Truck, a 4-ton, last-mile supply truck that’s change into fairly standard within the nation and has been on the coronary heart of Auteco’s technique since its arrival in 2018. If not for the absurd diesel subsidy nonetheless current within the nation, little question this truck could be doing significantly better.
Second: the just lately arrived Equinox EV, which could be bought roughly on the identical worth because the Kia EV5 long-range, with a really comparable battery however with AWD. I’ve lengthy mentioned that the Equinox may very well be a hit in Latin America, and whilst competitors grows more durable, I nonetheless consider that. However for Chevrolet to get gross sales as excessive as Kia’s, it should deliver a extra reasonably priced RWD model of this automobile (if near Kia’s 64 kWh EV5 worth, it ought to demolish it because of its for much longer vary). Additionally, that is (most likely) the one EV not made in China in the complete prime 10, so props to GM!
Model-wise, BYD completely dominated the market in October, and it really made it to the highest 10 of most-sold manufacturers within the nation! Beneath it we’ve got Volvo and Kia finishing the rostrum.
Yr thus far, we’ve got a extra balanced market as a result of the truth that the Seagull solely arrived in June, and the Yuan Up in August. Kia is but to surpass the Volvo EX30 (and it most likely received’t have the ability to within the two months left), so Volvo’s most cost-effective mannequin completes the rostrum, with the Music Plus in fourth place and the EV5 in fifth.
Model-wise, YTD, we’ve got BYD nonetheless dominating (although not as absurdly because it did in October), adopted by Volvo and BMW! This podium is prone to maintain, as no mannequin is promoting sufficient to dethrone BMW within the two months left within the yr. Kia’s EV5 and Renault’s Kwid E-Tech have put these two manufacturers into fourth and fifth place, whereas the brand new Equinox EV and the now discounted Chevy Bolt allowed Chevrolet to climb to sixth. Beneath, three Chinese language manufacturers compete with Mercedes for a spot within the prime 10.
Most EVs from these manufacturers are made in China … apart from Chevrolet’s*. GM’s model, a lone warrior, is now the only legacy producer standing as much as the Chinese language onslaught on this market. Even the Koreans have seemingly bowed to China’s proficiency (selecting to construct the EV5 there), so GM clearly has one thing good occurring for it, and I actually hope its advances aren’t wrecked by the approaching US administration.
*I’m but to find out whether or not all Mercedes and Volvo EVs are inbuilt China, or if some come from Europe. My instinct tells me most if not all are Chinese language.
The Coming Tsunami
We’re amidst Bogota’s Corridor of the Car, and, frankly, I’m a bit overwhelmed by the variety of arrivals. For years, I’ve recognized and adopted each single BEV arriving on this nation, however the final couple of weeks I’m feeling that will not be achievable.
Arrivals begin from $10,300 — the 13.5 kWh ultra-cute “Pony” FAW Bestune Xiaoma — and embrace the Zeekr X and 001, the Deepal S05 and S07, the Chery EQ7, the Kia EV3 and EV4, the BYD Sea Lion, the BMW iX M60, the Audi Q6, the Blazer EV, the Porsche Macan EV, the ORA 04, and the GAC Aion ES and Aion Y. I could also be lacking some, and that is solely BEVs (I not hope to maintain up with PHEVs).
A notable point out goes out to the 55kWh GAC Aion ES, a Mannequin 3 sized sedan arriving at a mere $21,800! That is what we’re speaking about once we ask for affordability! No fossil-fueled sedan of an identical dimension could be bought on this nation for such a low value: the age of EVs being cheaper than ICEVs has begun.
Lastly, the favored section of midsized SUVs appears to be saturated, and most of the new arrivals will likely be preventing in opposition to equally priced ICEV affords. We’ll see how they fare.
Remaining Ideas
With the brand new arrivals, many segments are actually coated with BEVs at comparable costs to their ICEV competitors. Nonetheless, two essential segments for this market stay uncovered: entry-level SUVs, and small sedans (~4.2m). You may get a good, no-frills-added SUV for $20,500 and a small sedan from $13,800: EVs aren’t remotely shut to those numbers for now. It’s additionally value mentioning the town automotive section, which, though nicely served by a number of EV fashions, continues to be far too costly and — save for the Seagull — far too vary restricted to compete efficiently with its ICEV competitors.
However within the extra premium segments, EVs are already successfully at worth parity. The trail now goes by means of model recognition and creating confidence within the client: this will likely take some time, however with the benefits EVs have in giant cities, it ought to be achievable within the medium time period.
Fast-charging stations are popping up right here and there, and just lately the fourth of them opened between Bogota and Santa Marta, lastly permitting EVs to “go to the coast,” which is the stereotypical journey for a Colombian middle-class trip. The variety of stalls continues to be restricted, however I haven’t but heard of traces or lengthy ready instances: as the whole variety of BEVs within the nation stays underneath 20,000, maybe not lots of them are wanted but.
As EV costs fall, count on EV adoption to extend. At this level, I’m beginning to see the occasional EV even in much less rich elements of Bogota, and several other manufacturers are working to develop by means of mid-sized and small cities. I don’t know how briskly this will likely be, but when the pricing development continues, we may nicely have cheaper EVs in each section in a few years … and that may absolutely be a troublesome time for ICEV Legacy Auto.
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